Economic indexes

BBVA Research keeps making progress in its project to measure the economy in real time and high definition, adding an index to measure investment and its components in its operating countries to its range of Big Data indicators.

These days the term sustainability seems to cover everything, and financial institutions are adapting to this new way of understanding the economy. In a gradual but unstoppable fashion, companies are incorporating sustainability criteria in their management. As a result, private and institutional investors are starting to call for global sustainable investment indexes that are rational, solid and reliable to allow them to monitor the evolving profitability of their sustainable investments.

As the European Central Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, we take a look back at some of its defining milestones. Not in vain, the ECB has been the guarantor of the euro’s survival and, since 2014, the central axis of the euro area’s financial system. Since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB took on a role that was pivotal for a huge part of the recovery. However, “it cannot act alone”: “further strengthening of Europe´s institutional and legal framework is necessary to construct a more united and resilient Europe to face future challenges.”

José Manuel González-Páramo, BBVA’s Executive Director Responsible for Global Economics, Regulation & Public Affairs, will chair the recently created Spain-Peru Council Foundation, a non-profit body set up with the aim of fostering relations between the two countries.

Over the past three years, the asset allocation team of BBVA Asset Management has overhauled its investment process to bring as much objectivity as possible to decision-making when building a portfolio. Based on the principles of behavioral economics, the new process aims to determine how the power of the mind affects financial decisions.

Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

After seven years of negotiations, the Canada-Europe Trade Agreement, CETA, has entered into force provisionally.  Under this bilateral agreement, the most ambitious signed to date by Brussels, most custom duties levied on trade flows between both countries will be scrapped.

Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

There has been an increasing focus on sustainable finance and on the impact of the climate change for the financial stability since 2015 year. Having said that, sustainable finance and the analysis of the consequences of climate change for the financial system are still in a very nascent stage and there is still a lot of work to be done. Two leading projects that are a step in the right direction are those of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Recommendations -at global level- and the creation of a European Expert Group on sustainable finance -in the EU.

After the positive surprise of growth in Q3 2016 (+2% y-o-y) and the developments that took place in the final months of the year, we expect GDP for 2016, which will be disclosed in May, to close at about 1.2%, finally pulling out of the stagnation of recent years, and leaving a positive momentum for 2017.

The 2017 business year will mark a turning point for Latin American economies, with an estimate growth of 1.3% for the region as a whole, compared to a 1.3% dip in 2016. This is what emerges from BBVA Research’s 4th Quarter Latin America Outlook report. The recovery, however, will be gradual and the region will remain well below potential growth, about 3%.

BBVA Research economists say that despite U.S. GDP showing a healthy rebound in the third quarter, the die has been cast after two consecutive quarters of weak growth. They expect the GDP growth rate in 2016 to be 1.6 percent, the lowest in seven years.

Over the past eight years, we have seen markets panic on a number of occasions. Normally, there was a good reason for the sudden market crashes. Let’s take a look at the periods of greatest market volatility and analyze the central banks’ responses to reassure investors.

BBVA has demonstrated its solid resilience in the European Banking Authority’s (EBA) stress tests of European banks, published today. In the adverse scenario, the bank would attain a fully-loaded CET1 ratio of 8.2% in 2018.

After a period of steady decline, the prices of copper -Chile's main export product- now stand at levels close the average cost of production of the mining companies that operate in the country. This has prompted a drop, not only in the industry’s investment and employment rates, but also in Chile’s economic activity level as a whole.

Over the past three decades, an economic model has gained a foothold in Chile that has proven successful at a number of levels, such as enabling high GDP growth rates (yearly average of 5.3%), helping the country to significantly bridge the income gap with developed countries such as the U.S. and Germany and improving  in the living standards of the population.

BBVA’s Executive Board Director and Chief Officer of Global Economics, Regulation & Public Affairs, José Manuel González-Páramo, sent a message to European leaders today in Santander. “What we have learned from the crisis is that political and private leaders should set their sights high and be ambitious when facing challenges and making decisions,” he maintained at the Menéndez Pelayo International University/Spanish Association of Financial Reports (UIMP/APIE) course while analyzing the challenges facing Europe, Spain and the financial sector.

There is broad consensus regarding the objective to expand the participation of economic agents in the financial system. Various studies have found that greater financial inclusion increases the population's welfare, reduces the likelihood of falling into poverty, increases productivity and generates a significant positive impact on the country's macro-economy. For all these reasons global economic policy agendas have been strongly recommending the implementation of measures to help strengthen financial inclusion in countries.

BBVA Research presented the latest edition of its Spain Economic Outlook report today. Economists’ forecasts for upcoming quarters remain unchanged from the forecasts that were published in the last first quarter report.

GDP expected to grow at about 2% in a scenario marked by lower oil prices and a complex international context for the country’s investments and exports. Growth in 2016 will be driven by expansions in the petrochemical industry, imports and the services and construction sectors.

During his address in Bilbao, during the conference organized by Elkargi SGR, BBVA Executive Director remarked that “the Spanish economy is managing to keep high growth rates despite global and local uncertainties.”  He defended the need for greater EU-wide integration and the implementation of free trade agreements - such as the TTIP which the US and EU are currently negotiating – as levers for economic stability and growth inside and outside Spain.

Latin America’s economy, taken as a whole, is set to contract 0.9% in 2016, dragged by Brazil’s recession. According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Situation report corresponding to the first quarter of 2016, the region’s economy is expected to start gaining momentum in 2017, with a growth rate of 1.9%.

Central banks in Latin America are finding it particularly difficult to meet their target of low and stable inflation, since many countries are facing at the same time problems of high inflation (fueled by the depreciation of the exchange rate) and low economic growth.

Brazil's economic recession may end up affecting all other Latin American countries, especially its closest neighbors: Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay. The negative effects of this situation will be mostly felt on trade but they will also impact tourism, foreign direct investment (FDI), and fund flows, among others. However, according to BBVA Research, the general effect of Brazil's negative circumstances is not strong enough to bring a crisis situation to other countries in the region.

Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.

Spanish and Mexican businessmen certify that companies from either country are very likely to succeed if they decide to unite efforts and work together.

The commodities boom has reached its end, impacting strongly on Latin American economies. Fiscal balances have been affected by lower currency revenue, currencies have devalued significantly, with the subsequent fall in the value of exports, and the exchange rate effect has led to a rise in inflation.  It has also had a negative impact on GDP growth that could become more pronounced if prices fall further in 2016.