Consumption indexes

“Real-time measurement of economic activity is a necessity in these times,” said Tomasa Rodrigo during the traditional summer course at Menéndez Pelayo International University (Santander), organized by the Spanish Association of Economic Information Journalists (APIE), with BBVA's collaboration and sponsorship.

According to last week's data on credit and debit card spending, consumption has recovered in regions where pandemic restrictions have been lifted. This improvement is observed in the U.S., Turkey and Spain, and in recent days in Latin America. In Spain, increased spending has been seen in those regions that first moved into phase two of the country's reopening. BBVA Research points out that there was also an increase in ATM cash withdrawals.

The relaxation of pandemic restrictions has given consumption a boost in those Spanish regions that first moved into phase two of the country’s reopening. BBVA Research's weekly analysis measuring debit and credit card spend reveals that for regions remaining in phase one, previous consumption improvements (coming out of the transition from phase zero to one) stalled, with declines last week of May standing firmly at between 10 and 15 percent.

Fewer mobility restrictions are beginning to bear fruit and some countries are starting to show signs of recovery, although at different speeds. The U.S. Sunbelt and Turkey are leading the way. In Spain, lifting the lockdown restrictions in different phases is leading to unequal recovery among the regions. These are the main conclusions of a weekly study that analyzes the dynamics of expenditures in the countries where BBVA operates during the COVID 19 pandemic.

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

The trade finance or foreign trade activity accompanies people and businesses in their activity importing/exporting goods and services, mitigating the risks that exist in international commercial relations and simplifying the settlement of operations. The same commercial transaction can require different solutions over time, depending on the moment at which it takes place and the role of the parties involved (importer or exporter).