Macroeconomics

BBVA Research is forecasting GDP growth of 2.6 percent for Catalonia in 2024, outpacing the average for Spain (2.5 percent). It also reckons that GDP will grow by 2.1 percent in 2025, supported by a wider economic improvement across Europe, albeit shackled by tourism, which is nearing maximum capacity in peak season. If these forecasts are met, in 2025 the GDP of the Catalan economy would be 7 points above the 2019 level. This growth comes on the back of a strong services sector, coupled with a recent improvement in industry, which are managing to offset weak exports of goods. For the third year running, Catalonia has outperformed Spain when it comes to GDP growth, as reflected in the creation of new jobs, with more sizable increases seen in Barcelona and Girona. In addition, the unemployment rate might well fall to 8.3 percent in 2025 and 192,000 new jobs could be created by the end of 2025. According to these forecasts, Catalonia is expected to create the most new jobs over this year and the next.

BBVA CEO Onur Genç delivered the closing address at a business event held on Monday by the Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE) and the Turkish Embassy in Spain to commemorate the centenary of the Republic of Türkiye. During his speech, Genç underscored the growth potential of Spain and Türkiye, two key partners that stand to benefit from their bilateral cooperation.

BBVA Mexico congratulates SHCP—the Mexican Treasury—on issuing a new sustainable bond known as 'BonoS.' With a fixed rate and a 12-year term, the bond is denominated in local currency. The issue attracted total demand of MXN 39,443 million, an oversubscription of 1.71 times. Both domestic and foreign investors placed orders.

BBVA Research has raised its forecast for Spain's GDP growth to 2.4 percent in 2023, up from its previous forecast of 1.6 percent in March. According to the latest ’Spain Economic Outlook’ paper published on Tuesday, this improvement is explained partly by revisions made by the Spanish statistics office, INE, but also by a surprisingly positive performance in exports, which offsets for slack internal demand. However, the BBVA research unit has lowered its growth forecast for 2024 from 2.6 percent to 2.1 percent, as uncertainty is expected to worsen across the world economy next year.

Carlos Torres Vila today opened the 38th APIE Seminar in Santander together with Nadia Calviño, Second Vice-President of the Government and Minister of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation. During his speech, the BBVA Chairman highlighted that, after a weak and uncertain start in 2021, the outlook for growth is now very positive. "We all expect a strong rebound in the economy in the second half of the year," he said. In his opinion, the economic recovery and the arrival of European funds put Spain in an excellent position to face the challenges of the productive model transformation. "We must take advantage of this new period of growth to transform our economy and that means preparing ourselves for a world that is undergoing radical change, preparing ourselves to face the challenges associated with that change, and to capitalize on the unparalleled opportunities that are opening up on the horizon," he stated.

Consensus Economics, one of the world´s most recognized analysis firms, has awarded Garanti BBVA the Forecast Accuracy Award for work by its economic analysis department.

The spread of coronavirus to several countries has led to a very charged reaction in the markets. The World Health Organization’s declaration of a global COVID-19 pandemic led to a number of immediate actions from the central banks and, concretely, the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as governments and other authorities in Europe. In a note, BBVA Research indicates that “the adoption of these measures is positive.” However, it feels that the monetary policy measures should be accompanied by a coordinated fiscal response from the European Union, which has already begun to materialize in Europe with similar stimulus plans between different countries.

The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for first quarter 2020, offering a look at a number of timely events and their anticipated economic impact.

BBVA Research released its U.S. Oil Prices Outlook, highlighting the expectation that oil production will expand further in 2020, though at a slower pace.

BBVA’s Executive Board Member, José Manuel González-Páramo, discussed the current status and outlook for the global economy at the 24th S'Agaró Economic Symposium. His main message was that: “The deceleration of the global economy seems to be stabilizing", with growth close to its potential. He therefore ruled out the “risk of recession”, which “is not the base scenario in the short-term.”

In recent months the world has witnessed an escalation of the U.S. - China trade war, with announcements of more restrictive and retaliatory measures. According to José Manuel González-Páramo, Executive Director and Global Head of Economics and Institutional Relations at BBVA, given this climate of global uncertainty, it is essential to build new bridges and establish areas for cooperation.

According to the latest Economic Outlook published this week by BBVA Research, GDP growth has decelerated in 2Q2019, but a rebound in consumption should support moderate growth rates in 2H2019. Survey-based investment indicators are also declining amidst deteriorating business expectations. In addition, countervailing trade dynamics -- weaker global growth versus reduced trade tensions -- imply there will be no material change in the net export balance.

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced at yesterday’s meeting its future guidance on rates, which will remain on hold at least until the first half of 2020. As noted by BBVA Research in its ECB Watch report, the ECB is open to adopting further measures if necessary.  The ECB also announced the conditions of its TLTRO-III liquidity line.

All eyes were on the possibility yesterday that the European Central Bank (ECB) could make changes in the forward guidance on rate and on a potential announcement of new liquidity measures. And Mario Draghi didn’t disappoint: he answered both questions. He announced that the ECB will keep interest rates on hold until at least the end of this year and another series of auctions of long-term liquidity. BBVA Research has just released an ECB Watch report covering and assessing the measures announced by Draghi.

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts of 2.4% growth in Spain in 2019 and 2% in 2020, according to the latest report, Spain Economic Outlook. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist  Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. BBVA Research indicates that the recovery will continue, although the trend toward moderated growth is expected to consolidate over the coming quarters. Should this forecast be confirmed, the economy could add around 800,000 jobs over the next two years. This would represent a decrease in the job creation rate, but lower unemployment to 12.6% in 2020.

The slowdown taking place in some economies, protectionism, uncertainty over economic policy, an abrupt adjustment in China and rising debt are some of the issues that threaten to provoke another global economic crisis, one that would impact some regions more than others. “The general perception is that we are now past the peak in the cycle of growth of recent years,” says Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research.

The world has recently taken a turn toward trade protectionism. Given this situation, at a forum in Madrid, BBVA Executive Board Member José Manuel González-Páramo proposed committing to multilateralism through the World Trade Organization. He expects “Europe to play a relevant role” in this movement. These efforts are essential, he maintained, because protectionism threatens global growth.

BBVA Research lowered growth expectations for Spain’s GDP to 2.6 percent in 2018 and 2.4 percent in 2019 (representing a drop of 0.3 and  0.1 percentage points, respectively, from the forecast of three months ago). The downward revision is primarily due to a more modest performance in the first half of the year. Lower growth of both exports and private consumption are two important factors contributing to the revised projections. This was the view detailed in the most recent report on the Spanish Economic Outlook, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, chief economist at BBVA Group and director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, head of Macroeconomic analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research's chief economist for Spain and Portugal.

The European Central Bank in 2018 began the turnover process in a number of key posts on its Executive Board. The crux will be the end of Mario Draghi’s term in office in October 2019 amid doubts about whether his departure will coincide with a hike in interest rates expected between the summer and the fall of next year.

The European Central Bank on Thursday announced it is maintaining its monetary policy unchanged. Interest rates will remain at current levels until the summer of 2019 or “as long as necessary”, as announced in its June meeting. In doing so, ECB President Mario Draghi gave no further clarification on the next steps in the bank’s roadmap and intoned the mantra of prudence and patience.

The European Council meeting held on June 28 and 29 took some steps toward euro reform; conclusion of agreements will likely occur at the next meeting in December. Although it was hoped that the summit would address key questions like the budget proposed by Germany and France, ultimately the European partners chose to adopt a minimum agreement. The agreement includes measures such as support for a banking resolution fund, but the reform of the euro was deferred.

After the bare minimum agreement on the banking union achieved at the recently held European Council, the debate about the future of Europe continues unabated. With this agreement still fresh, the Bank of Finland invited scholars, representatives of the financial sector and regulators talk about the future of the Old Continent. The experts gathered in Helsinki called for advancing towards a greater banking and capital markets union. The next date in the calendar: The European Council meeting in December.

At its meeting on June 14, the European Central Bank (ECB) set an expiry date for the asset purchase program: December of this year. The program, which started in March 2015, is now approaching its end. It forms part of the non-standard measures that Mario Draghi's institution implemented during the toughest years of the economic crisis. What do they consist of?

The Council of Europe will hold its June summit at a complex time with significant challenges on economic, political, and social issues. As BBVA Research points out, it also represents an opportunity to further strengthen the EU's Economic and Monetary Union. As such, the reform of the euro will be one of the decisive elements, although also one of the most controversial.

As the European Central Bank celebrates its 20th anniversary, we take a look back at some of its defining milestones. Not in vain, the ECB has been the guarantor of the euro’s survival and, since 2014, the central axis of the euro area’s financial system. Since the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the ECB took on a role that was pivotal for a huge part of the recovery. However, “it cannot act alone”: “further strengthening of Europe´s institutional and legal framework is necessary to construct a more united and resilient Europe to face future challenges.”

Every time Mario Draghi speaks at the news conference after the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monthly monetary policy meeting, the markets hold their breath. And after he finishes, they react. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, the expectations created by the bank’s message have taken on added relevance. BBVA Research is aware of the importance of being able to gauge if the ECB’s message adequately reflects its policy and has used big data techniques to this end.

The European Commission has presented its proposal on developing a new class of low-risk assets in the form of sovereign bond-backed securities (SBBS). The new security, whose goal is to enhance diversification and reduce sovereign bond risk in the euro zone, was included in the European Commission’s roadmap. The plan unveiled in December 2017 aims to deepen European Economic and Monetary Union.

Of the tax revenue paid by Europeans, only one euro per taxpayer is used to finance the EU's budget. In total, the EU manages a budget of about 1% of the gross national income of its member states. Nonetheless, how this money is invested directly impacts Europeans’ lives; it is therefore of interest to understand the EU budget as of 2021, the first spending plan after the UK's exit from the EU.

As expected, the European Central Bank left interest rates and its asset-purchasing program, or quantitative easing (QE), unchanged. After its policy meeting, Mario Draghi instead stressed concerns about the global risks posed by protectionism as well as the need to focus on inflation.