Risk country

In recent months, concerns surrounding the financial health of the business sector have been on the rise. In particular, market participants are worried that higher price pressures, faster monetary policy normalization, and a trade war, amid stretched valuations, could trigger a significant decline in risk appetite. This would lead to higher borrowing costs and tighter financial conditions.

The headlines about the U.S. dollar this year have underscored how complicated it is to predict the movement of any one currency in a global economy. They’ve gone from grim (“Dollar set for worst January in 30 years”) to triumphant (“Dollar claws back”) to deflated (“Dollar’s rebound fizzles”) in a matter of weeks.

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

The country risk premium is the return that investors demand from a country to buy its sovereign bonds in comparison with that demanded from other countries. It is calculated as the difference between the interest rate of a country’s bonds compared to bonds issued by a benchmark country, considered "riskless."

The tale of the U.S. economy since the election of Donald Trump is one of great expectations but little growth.

April 2017 Update. Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. The Chinese will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue and the the ISIS situation deteriorates. The US decided to advance in Raqqa (the ISIS capital) supporting the YPG forces in the combats. Turkey has already protested the decision. Social unrest increased in some Latin American countries, while Asia remained calm. Uncertainties about the future of Europe decreased after Macron’s victory in French elections.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research’s website

The usual “known unknowns” continue to be alive and new ones could join this year. In the short term, the anti ISIS offensive continues and still far from being solved. Meanwhile the long lasting conflict between Russia and Ukraine looks to escalate. North Africa and the Middle East will continue to be the main hot spots in 2017, but higher political and geopolitical uncertainties could arise all over the world. The rise of populism and constrains to the flows of people (anti-immigration) and trade (protectionism) will challenge the international rules and globalisation. The new agenda by the US administration and the response of China, Russia and the Middle East, as well as uncertainties in Europe (elections and the Brexit) will continue to shape the dynamics of the geopolitics of the coming years.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research's website

In its December 2016 Banking Outlook report, BBVA Research reviews the most relevant trends and developments in the banking sector. The report analyzes the current status of Spanish banks and also examines the changing regulatory context in the European financial sector.

“It is really moving to see this type of initiatives and how a Foundation like ours can do so much in favor of society. These people have access to loan facilities, but they manage to move forward thanks to their own efforts and will to fight. Their work is spectacular and we are already seeing progress in future generations; their kids and grandchildren go to school and many even make it to college. For me, it has been an incredible visit,” said Francisco González during his visit to some of the projects supported by the BBVA Microfinance Foundation (BBVAMF) in Soacha, a city just outside of Bogota (Colombia).

The recent report, The Business of Financial Inclusion: Insights from Banks in Emerging Markets represents a new endeavor for the Institute of International Finance (IIF). It is based on the insights of 24 executives in charge of financial inclusion, a topic of growing interest.

The outcome of the referendum that took place yesterday in the UK, where most Britons (51.9%) voted for the UK to leave the European Union, has triggered reactions across the world. Here are the 5 statements that you cannot miss about the Brexit:

Eduardo Ávila is one of those Cordovans without a discernible accent… until the high speed train reaches the Caliphal city station. We sit before him, ready to listen to someone who knows the tempestuous world of banking regulation like the back of his hand. Right from the start, it is clear he has a keen sense of humor.

He studied at the University College of Financial Studies (CUNEF) and holds a Master’s degree from the University of Reading (U.K.). He has worked for BBVA since 1992, starting as an intern in Argentaria. Since then, he left Spain to continue his professional growth in BBVA in Portugal, Peru and Mexico.

Married with three children, he enjoys his family and biking. An avid reader, books pile up on his night stand because of “the amount of materials you have to review nowadays to stay up to date.”

He vacations in the south, in his childhood hometown of Cordoba, with the exception of the few days he spends in Rota, Cadiz.

He reviews the recent changes in financial regulation with us, how BBVA deals with these changes and how the bank complies with very different regulations in so many countries.

Brazil, the biggest economy in Latin America, is facing a political and economic crisis that is keeping the country in recession and will extend over 2016. We talked about the economic situation and outlook for the country with Enestor Dos Santos, economist at BBVA Research for Brazil, who explained that if the situation is to be normalized it is important to resolve the political situation first. This will reduce uncertainty, generate more stability and enable the right decisions to be made to allow the country to grow again. However, he clarifies that recovery from this economic recession will start gradually in 2017 and gather strength after the 2018 elections.

El Niño is the warm phase of the ENSO (“El Niño Southern Oscillation”), a meteorological event defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. This year’s event is currently affecting the countries of the Latin American Pacific basin, and could be the worst since 1950, due to the impact of the climate change.