Regional analysis

The report 'Impact of COVID-19 on Consumption in Real Time and High Frequency´ in Spain, published by BBVA Research, reflects a 28 percent increase in card purchases  compared to June 2019 levels. Transactions grew by 19 percent y-o-y through face-to-face channels and 69 percent in non-face-to-face channels. The increase in mobility saw a boost in spending, especially in consumer sectors such as hospitality and leisure, and in those that involve travel, such as transport.

According to 'Impact of COVID-19 on Consumption in Real Time and High Definition', a report by BBVA Research, May 2021 card spending was 19 percent higher than in May 2019 (+36 percent y-o-y, i.e. compared to May 2020). Spending in restaurants and leisure grew the most, driven by the lifting of state of alarm restrictions.

The region's economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, one tenth less than in 2018 (1.6%), and below the forecasts at start of the year, which put growth at 2.1%. Improvement of the global context, supported by the agreement between the US and China, the trend toward expansive monetary policy, and reduced financial volatility will all help to stabilize the economy.

BBVA Research modified its forecast of Latin America’s growth. The region will continue recovering, but growth will be more moderate and gradual than expected, primarily due to external factors. BBVA economists estimate that Latin America will grow 2.1% in 2019 and 2.14% in 2020 (or 0.3% and 0.2% less than previously expected, respectively).

According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Economic Outlook report for the second quarter of 2018, the region’s positive trends of recent years are set to continue, with GDP growth forecasted at 1.4% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019. However, BBVA’s study service has downgraded its 2018 growth forecast for the region by three tenths.

Economic activity in Latin America has been invigorated in recent months, in line with the recovery of confidence among families and businesses and a more favorable external context. In its Latin America Economic Outlook for first quarter 2018, BBVA Research forecasts that the region’s growth will increase from 1.1% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

Argentina’s small and medium sized enterprises, despite being pummeled by taxes and struggling to access credit, managed to survive the collapse of consumption. Now, they are gearing up to capitalize on the improving economic outlook, thanks to the lending and tax measures that the government will roll out in short to encourage them to invest. Four our of every 10 companies say they intend to do so.

During 2017, the European Union managed to weather populist electoral bids in its member countries, and to keep the Brexit talks on track. But the year to come presents even larger challenges that will require a sustained, collective effort by EU leaders, says BBVA Executive Director José Manuel González-Páramo.

Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.

The outlook for Argentina’s economy in 2018 remains optimistic, with GDP expected to expand by nearly 3% for the second consecutive year. However, achieving sustained growth and attracting international investment will depend, not just on stable macro indicators, but on long-lasting structural reforms. While the initial signs of economic recovery became apparent in the second half of 2016, it wasn’t until mid-2017 that growth rates began to pick up across most industries.

The oldest private domestic bank in Argentina and one of the leaders in Latin America, BBVA Francés on October 14 marked its 130th year in operation and its 21st year as part of the BBVA Group. In the course of its history, BBVA Francés has gone from being a 20th century “temple of money,” to a powerhouse of digital banking in the Argentina of the 21st century.

Big Data Spain brought together more than 1,200 specialists in data analysis and science in Madrid for two days, during which it was made clear how this technology can bring a new dimension to any area: from marketing to user experience to economic and geopolitical analysis.

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

BBVA Research has upgraded its Latin America 2017 growth forecast by 30 basic points, citing improvement in domestic demand in Mexico and Peru. The BBVA Group study service expects the region to grow 1.1% in 2017 and 1.6% in 2018.

BBVA Research USA economists revised upward their estimate of the economic impact of Harvey, putting it at up to $111 billion, which would make it the second most costly natural disaster in recent U.S. history after Hurricane Katrina.

When you have a storm as destructive as Hurricane Harvey hit one of the most important state economies in one of the world’s most powerful economies, the question is natural: How might the effects ripple in unexpected ways? We talked to the economists at BBVA Research USA to help offer perspective.

The Pacific Alliance, made up of Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, is a regional economic and comercial powerhouse.  This area grows more than the average in Latin America. BBVA Research expects GDP growth of 1.6% and 2.3% in 2017 and 2018, respectively.  "The Pacific Alliance is a success story in integration.  And not by chance.  It shares an ambition and a set of values behind this policy, on how prosperity should be reached," said Jose Manuel González-Páramo, executive director of BBVA in Santander.

Argentina and Brazil are finally pulling out of recession and driving the economic growth in Latin America as a whole this year, despite the slowdown in other countries in the region. According to BBVA Resarch’s ‘Latin America Economic Outlook’ Q3 report, the region will grow 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018.

This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change.  They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.

Latin America is not very keen on, or good at saving, says a new publication by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The solution would be to promote financial education and build a culture based on improving saving habits among Latin Americans.

April 2017 Update. Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. The Chinese will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue and the the ISIS situation deteriorates. The US decided to advance in Raqqa (the ISIS capital) supporting the YPG forces in the combats. Turkey has already protested the decision. Social unrest increased in some Latin American countries, while Asia remained calm. Uncertainties about the future of Europe decreased after Macron’s victory in French elections.

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The economic slowdown in Latin America will come to an end this year, with a 1.1% growth rate in the region. Forecasts by BBVA Research estimate that in 2018, the region´s economy will continue to recover, with GDP expanding at the rate of 1.8%. This is still well below its potential, which is estimated at close to 3%.

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

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After the positive surprise of growth in Q3 2016 (+2% y-o-y) and the developments that took place in the final months of the year, we expect GDP for 2016, which will be disclosed in May, to close at about 1.2%, finally pulling out of the stagnation of recent years, and leaving a positive momentum for 2017.

Recently, the European Commission (EC) presented a White Paper on the Future of Europe. This document comes at a crucial time for the European Union and represents the Commission’s contributions to the Rome Summit On March 25, 2017, the EC explains.

In a meeting organized by the Rafael del Pino Foundation to discuss the future of Europe, José Manuel González-Páramo said that the “European Union is more necessary today than ever” to rise up to find a solution to the Old Continent’s most pressing issues. According to BBVA’s Executive Board Director, the EU now faces the challenge, but also the opportunity, to plot its future without the UK, one of its traditional and more important, partners.

On the financial plane, BBVA’s Executive Board Director highlighted the EU’s achievements in its path towards building a banking union. However, he warned about the need to keep moving ahead with the reforms and completing the following stage in the process: the rollout of the EDIS, the European Deposit Insurance Scheme.

South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research's Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.

The usual “known unknowns” continue to be alive and new ones could join this year. In the short term, the anti ISIS offensive continues and still far from being solved. Meanwhile the long lasting conflict between Russia and Ukraine looks to escalate. North Africa and the Middle East will continue to be the main hot spots in 2017, but higher political and geopolitical uncertainties could arise all over the world. The rise of populism and constrains to the flows of people (anti-immigration) and trade (protectionism) will challenge the international rules and globalisation. The new agenda by the US administration and the response of China, Russia and the Middle East, as well as uncertainties in Europe (elections and the Brexit) will continue to shape the dynamics of the geopolitics of the coming years.

For more information, please visit BBVA Research's website

After two consecutive years of contraction, Latin America will be able to post positive growth figures in 2017, between 1.2% and 1.3%, according to projections by BBVA Research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank .

46 years ago, in 1971, a group of business leaders reunited under the patronage of the European Comission and some industrial associations. The economist Klaus Schwab chaired the first meeting, with 440 attendants from more than 30 countries in Davos, Switzerland. In this reunion, the European Economic Forum was founded as a non-profit organization with its headquarters in Geneva.

Ever since then, thousands of political and business leaders, artists and enterpreneurs have met in the anual Davos-Kloster meeting. The following 15 milestones are only some of the main events that have marked the history of the World Economic Forum.