Macroeconomics analysis

Spain’s GDP fell 10.8 percent in 2020 (practically in line with BBVA Research’s prediction of 11 percent) and could grow 5.5 percent in 2021 and seven percent in 2022, according to the latest report Spain Economic Outlook by BBVA Research. It was presented on Thursday by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist at BBVA; Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain. Nevertheless, if the spread of COVID-19 continues to be limited and the government’s vaccination plans move ahead, the research service feels that there could be an upward bias for these forecasts.

BBVA’s chairman participated this Tuesday in the first edition of the Expansión International Economic Forum, organized by the financial newspaper Expansión and the international forum, the European House-Ambrosetti, in Alcalá de Henares, Madrid.  “Public-private collaboration can leverage private initiatives to make investment decisions and generate prosperity,” said Carlos Torres Vila. In this regard, he feels that “the work of the public sector is to attract private investment with appropriate incentive schemes that manage to multiply European funds,” and in this process, “banks can play a key role” to channel the funds, analyze the projects being financed and strengthen their effect on the economy with their financing.

The U.S. labor market continued to improve in August, according to the latest economic analysis from the BBVA Research team.

The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for third quarter 2020, as the U.S. faces one of its most challenging environments in modern history.

The BBVA Research team published its economic analysis of the drop in gross domestic product for second quarter 2020, noting it is the steepest decline in over-the-quarter growth since 1937, in the aftermath of the Great Depression.

Spain’s GDP could contract 11.5 percent in 2020 and grow seven percent in 2021, according to the latest ‘Spain Economic Outlook’ report, which was presented this Tuesday by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist at BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, BBVA Research Head of Economic Analysis; and Miguel Cardoso, BBVA Research's Chief Economist for Spain. The contraction that is expected in 2020 represents a downgrade from the previous report’s forecast, which estimated an eight percent drop in GDP this year. The downward revision is mainly due to the fact that lockdown measures were in place longer than anticipated and these restrictions had a greater impact on demand, like in other European countries. Still, the reduction in number of COVID-19 infections and the easing of restrictions has led to a strong recovery. The ambitious policy announcements in Europe and a significant fiscal stimulus in Spain reinforces the expectation that this trend will continue. Even so, the risks continue to tilt to the downside in a climate of continued heightened uncertainty.

The BBVA Research team has published two reports: its U.S. Regional Outlook for July, highlighting key factors impacting regional economies, along with its economic analysis of the U.S. employment report. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact job growth and other economic indicators.

The BBVA Research team has published its unemployment insights for May 2020, noting that the economy appears to have reached bottom and that the recovery is underway.

The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for second quarter 2020, offering a look at how the U.S. economy might recover in a post-COVID world.

The BBVA Research team has published its U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for April 2020, offering insight into the economic outlook as well as macro fundamentals.

In its latest edition of 'Spain Outlook' - presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis of BBVA – BBVA’s research service estimates that the containment measures implemented to curb contagion rates and reign in the Covid-19 pandemic will cause Spain's GDP to decline 8 percent year-on-year (compared to its previous 1.6 percent growth forecast). The decline may drive to an unemployment rate above 20 percent this year. In 2021, as a result of the expected global recovery and the policies promoted by both European institutions and the government of Spain, Spain’s GDP growth rate could reach 5.7 percent year-on-year.

In order to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis as soon as possible, it is important to adopt measures designed to preserve jobs, especially for SMEs and the self- employed, said BBVA’s Group executive chairman. At this point, “We need to put ourselves in the position of the self employed and business owners,” Carlos Torres Vila said Monday night in an interview with Spanish radio station COPE. In this regard, he stressed the role of banks to help these business endeavors overcome the crisis.

According to the publication released from BBVA Research, When will the U.S. economy recover from the infection?, the experience of countries that have transitioned beyond the worst phase of the pandemic suggest that the number of coronavirus cases in the U.S. could peak in the spring or early summer.

According to the publication released this week from BBVA Research, U.S. Macroeconomic Pulse for January 2020, the current baseline assumes growth of 1.8% in 2020, with a potential upside emerging.  The paper further notes that model-based recession projections suggest probability around 30% over the next 24-months.

BBVA Chief U.S. Economist Nathaniel Karp, a member of the American Bankers Association (ABA) Economic Advisory Committee, joined the group’s other 14 economists in providing a detailed forecast for the coming year.

The region's economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, one tenth less than in 2018 (1.6%), and below the forecasts at start of the year, which put growth at 2.1%. Improvement of the global context, supported by the agreement between the US and China, the trend toward expansive monetary policy, and reduced financial volatility will all help to stabilize the economy.

The B20 - or “G20 for businesses” - is a forum of private international companies that provides recommendations to the G20 to address the most relevant challenges of the global economic and financial agenda. This year, Saudi Arabia will preside over the meeting. BBVA has played a very active role in the B20 since 2015, thanks to BBVA Executive Board Member José Manuel González-Páramo, who serves as Vice Chair of the Finance and Infrastructure Task Force.

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report - presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research unit upheld the scenario it forecasted three months ago, which envisages a slowdown in Spain’s domestic GDP growth rate to 1.6% in 2020 from the 1.9% rate measured at 2019 year end. For 2021, a slightly more favorable international environment could result in a slight uptick in growth, with rates reverting to the 1.9% range. According to BBVA Research, this scenario would drive the creation of 600,000 jobs over the 2020-2021 timeframe, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.5 percent, in average, in 2021.

According to BBVA Research’s latest Country Risk Quarterly Report, financial tensions have eased across all regions, markets, and asset classes with the exception of Latin America. Emerging Asia is the only region where all variables for the macroeconomic vulnerability radar analysis stand below their corresponding risk thresholds. Between 2018 and 2019 there were no significant changes to the degree of macroeconomic vulnerability across all developed economies, whereas within emerging regions, changes were concentrated in Latin America.

BBVA Research released its U.S. Recession Risk Monitor, noting that the probability of a recession within the coming 12 months is at a one-year low, with the likelihood at 30 percent.

In its latest Spain Outlook report, presented today by Jorge Sicilia, the Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist for the BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, the Head of Economic Analysis, BBVA Research lowered the forecast for the national GDP growth to 1.9 percent (from 2.3 percent three months ago) and to 1.6 percent for 2020 (from the previous forecast of 1.9 percent). The decrease is explained by a review of economic data carried out by Spain’s national statistics body, the INE, due to the negative trend in some components of demand and the deteriorating international context. Under this scenario, around 750,000 jobs would be created over the two-year period and the unemployment rate would average 13.3 percent next year.

Mounting trade tensions and the fear of a potential global slowdown have recently caused central banks to rethink their strategies. Some have even kicked-off a new round of interest rate cuts. What's the goal?

In its latest Spain Economic Outlook report - presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Director of BBVA Research and Chief Economist of BBVA Group, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis – BBVA’s research service slightly upgrades its domestic GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 2.3% (vs. 2.2% three months ago), and keeps its 2020 forecast unchanged at 1.9%. The economy is expected to continue expanding in the coming months, driven by the progressive recovery of the global environment, a more accommodative monetary policy and declining oil prices. Under this scenario, BBVA Research expects 810,000 new jobs to be created over the coming two-year period, driving the unemployment rate down to around 12.2% by the end of 2020.

BBVA Research, the research services arm of BBVA, has released its most recent edition of the “Spain Economic Outlook” where it forecasts a slight slowdown in growth. The report was presented today by BBVA Research Director and BBVA Group Chief Economist, Jorge Sicilia, and Rafael Doménech, Head of Economic Analysis at BBVA Research. The forecast lowers first quarter expectations to 2.2 percent in 2019 and 1.9 percent in 2020 (from 2.4 percent and 2 percent, respectively). Even so, the report signals that an improvement in economic activity could be underpinned by the global economy’s gradual recovery, an increasingly expansionary stance on monetary policy, continued low oil prices, and the positive conclusion to uncertainty stemming from different sources. Consequences of such a scenario would see a salary increase exceeding the inflation rate, an up to 12 percent reduction in unemployment in 2020, and the creation of close to 630,000 jobs over the next two years.

BBVA Research modified its forecast of Latin America’s growth. The region will continue recovering, but growth will be more moderate and gradual than expected, primarily due to external factors. BBVA economists estimate that Latin America will grow 2.1% in 2019 and 2.14% in 2020 (or 0.3% and 0.2% less than previously expected, respectively).

The U.S. total fertility rate continues its downward trend, falling to its lowest point in 48 years at 1.77, according to a white paper published by BBVA Research this week. The report goes on to identify both the cause and the impact of this drop.

BBVA Asset Management (BBVA AM) believes that the stock market may be the most profitable asset for the coming year as a whole, but within a volatile market environment. This has been pointed out by Joaquín García Huerga, director of Global Strategy of BBVA Asset Management, in the presentation of the market outlook for 2019. If the economic cycle is not turned around, the stock markets could rise by an average of 10% by adding dividends.

The BBVA Research team has published its Economic Outlook for fourth quarter 2018, a timely look at the anticipated economic impact of midterm elections.

Changing monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe and tension over trade are the two main global “shocks” facing emerging economies. BBVA participated in the 2018 IIF MENA Financial Summit in Abu Dhabi, where a group of experts analyzed the global macroeconomic outlook and its impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).