Financial scenarios

The region's economy grew by 0.6% in 2019, one tenth less than in 2018 (1.6%), and below the forecasts at start of the year, which put growth at 2.1%. Improvement of the global context, supported by the agreement between the US and China, the trend toward expansive monetary policy, and reduced financial volatility will all help to stabilize the economy.

A European Commission (EC) expert group has called on regulators to respond to the changing nature of fintech to ensure customers can continue to see the rewards the sector brings.

Mounting trade tensions and the fear of a potential global slowdown have recently caused central banks to rethink their strategies. Some have even kicked-off a new round of interest rate cuts. What's the goal?

Global banks face six major challenges when tackling their anti-money laundering efforts: their international footprint, supervisory pressure, maximizing efficiency and effectiveness, leveraging technology, recognizing specialized talent and raising awareness among society about how important it is that everybody collaborates with financial institutions.

Nothing can prepare you for the loss of a spouse or partner. The emotional burden alone is enough to virtually paralyze even the strongest and most organized people. But the logistics in the aftermath of a death in the family can also be staggering. That’s why it is so important to prepare yourself and your family well in advance.

Changing monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe and tension over trade are the two main global “shocks” facing emerging economies. BBVA participated in the 2018 IIF MENA Financial Summit in Abu Dhabi, where a group of experts analyzed the global macroeconomic outlook and its impact on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

The European Commission enters the final stretch of its mandate. The commissioners who took office in 2014 will leave their posts after the next European elections (in May 2019). Before the current members of the Commission and the European Parliament are replaced, both institutions will conclude negotiations and approval of some of the EU's priority measures.

The European Union is already readying itself for the possible exit of the United Kingdom from the European club without an agreement between the two sides. Although no scenario has been ruled out, Miguel Jiménez, the chief economist for Europe at BBVA Research, argued in a recent article published in El País that “a no-deal exit in March, with no transitional period, is no longer inconceivable”. In his opinion, this would be the worst possible outcome of Brexit.

The new accounting regulation IFRS 9 aims to buttress financial stability against future crises.  It obliges financial institutions to more faithfully reflect credit risk and calculate provisions for insolvencies following an expected loss model (versus the previous “incurred loss” model). For a majority of financial institutions, this has resulted in an increase in provisions and the subsequent impact on capital.

According to BBVA Research’s Latin America Economic Outlook report for the second quarter of 2018, the region’s positive trends of recent years are set to continue, with GDP growth forecasted at 1.4% for 2018 and 2.5% for 2019. However, BBVA’s study service has downgraded its 2018 growth forecast for the region by three tenths.

The headlines about the U.S. dollar this year have underscored how complicated it is to predict the movement of any one currency in a global economy. They’ve gone from grim (“Dollar set for worst January in 30 years”) to triumphant (“Dollar claws back”) to deflated (“Dollar’s rebound fizzles”) in a matter of weeks.

As had been expected, following its monthly meeting the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. At the same time, ECB President Mario Draghi introduced the exchange rate as an element of uncertainty, stressing that he will monitor the fluctuations in the euro and their possible consequences. Likewise, he reiterated the possibility of broadening the bond purchase program, continuing his accommodative policy, which will be accompanied by interest rates at minimum levels for a long period of time.

This year, the World Economic Forum at Davos is attracting plenty of attention. From the long-awaited speech by U.S. President Donald Trump to the criticisms of American protectionism and support for global cooperation expressed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron, no leader misses their moment in the spotlight to send messages to the world community.

BBVA Research maintains its forecasts for Spain’s GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 at 3.1% and 2.5%, respectively. In addition, it expects that the economic recovery will continue in 2019  (with a 2.3% increase in GDP) and that the improvement in the economy will translate into wage growth. BBVA Research’s latest Spain Economic Outlook was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of the BBVA Group and Director of BBVA Research; Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at BBVA Research; and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist for Spain and Portugal.  If these forecasts prove to be correct, Spain´s unemployment rate could drop to 13.4% by end of 2019, which would imply the creation of 860,000 jobs over the next two years.

Once again, the Argentine economy faces critical decisions to avoid a new downturn and take the path to more sustainable growth. Markets are keeping a close eye on the post-electoral roadmap outlined by the administration of President Mauricio Macri.

The refugee crisis, political events and the social reaction to them, natural disasters such as Hurricane Harvey or Hurricane Irma, the sentiments of people or central banks… there is an ever-increasing number of events whose economic impact, in a world of growing risk and uncertainty, is hard to gauge using traditional methods. That’s where ‘Big Data’ and ‘Data Science’ techniques come in, helping to quantify these trends from micro to macro level.

According to BBVA Research’s latest Spain Outlook report, 2017 will cap off Spain’s three-year run of GDP growth at rates above three percent. Recovery will continue in 2018, but at a slower pace, in an environment marked by rising uncertainties. The report was presented today by Jorge Sicilia, Chief Economist of BBVA Group and Head of BBVA Research, Rafael Doménech, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis of BBVA Research and Miguel Cardoso, Chief Economist Spain and Portugal. Considering this scenario, BBVA Research has downgraded its GDP growth forecasts for 2017 and 2018 to 3.1 and 2.5%, from 3.3% and 2.8% in July.

Perseverance is the key to success. That was the message BBVA’s Group Executive Chairman shared with an audience of finance and banking students at the start of the academic year. “Amazon was about to collapse twice. It has been hard for us, but here we are leading the transformation of the industry,” said Francisco González. Principles are the other fundamental element: “Never give in to misconduct,” he told them.

On the occasion of the annual meeting of the International Advisory Panel of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, BBVA Executive Chairman Francisco González shared his vision of the implications of the current technological revolution: “The technological and digital transformation is an extraordinary opportunity, but actively managing the changes it entails is fundamental to ensuring equal opportunity and the transfer of its enormous benefits, advantages and possibilities to the whole of society.”

This is the message the G20 wanted to transmit at the end of the summit that took place last weekend in Hamburg, Germany. However, it does not seem that this actually reflects the tone among the heads of state. The main point of disagreement was around the U.S. position on climate change.  They agreed on issues related to opening markets, international trade and the stability of the financial system.

The tale of the U.S. economy since the election of Donald Trump is one of great expectations but little growth.

AI is a core focus for BBVA and for many banks around the world.

After the chemical weapons attack on Syrian civilian population, the US launched its first military strike against the Assad regime sending a clearer message to Syria and North Korea. However, it is still early to know whether this is a tactical message or part of a broader strategy. Europe and Asia kept with low conflict levels, while in North Africa, instability rose.

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There has been an increasing focus on sustainable finance and on the impact of the climate change for the financial stability since 2015 year. Having said that, sustainable finance and the analysis of the consequences of climate change for the financial system are still in a very nascent stage and there is still a lot of work to be done. Two leading projects that are a step in the right direction are those of the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Recommendations -at global level- and the creation of a European Expert Group on sustainable finance -in the EU.

After a years of steep deterioration, Uruguay has managed to partially recover some of the ground lost after a historic fall in productivity.  Despite this, a person working in Uruguay today reaches an average productivity slightly above 40% of the level they would achieve working in an advanced economy.  How is this possible?  What can be done?  This paper sets out a potential explanation and suggests a line of action for further progress.

Recently, the European Commission (EC) presented a White Paper on the Future of Europe. This document comes at a crucial time for the European Union and represents the Commission’s contributions to the Rome Summit On March 25, 2017, the EC explains.

South America’s GDP will recover in 2017 after four years of economic slowdown, while Mexico will bear the impact of the uncertainty surrounding US policies, which is likely to hinder its growth prospects. These are the key conclusions of BBVA Research's Latin America Outlook Q1 2017 report.

After two consecutive years of contraction, Latin America will be able to post positive growth figures in 2017, between 1.2% and 1.3%, according to projections by BBVA Research, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank .