BBVA Research publishes its second quarter U.S. Economic Outlook

The report provides a high level view of the country’s efforts to find a balance between bringing the economy back to normal while keeping its residents safe. The economists, who authored the expansive report together, indicated that they expect to see ongoing social distancing, workforce-protection controls, and case-based interventions (testing, contact tracing, self-isolation, etc.), which may become more or less strict depending on the rate of infection and the operating capacity of the healthcare system.

The quarterly outlook delves into the continuing impact of the pandemic on the U.S. labor market, as more than 30 million people have filed for unemployment. In addition, the report contains a comprehensive view of the role of the Fed and monetary policy on the U.S. economy along with a perspective on policymakers’ efforts to mitigate the healthcare, social and economic costs of the novel coronavirus. These include a series of four different relief measures beginning in early March.

The report further offers insights into the current housing market, for both existing homes and new construction, noting that the initial indication of the severity and the speed of the downturn came from the homebuilders housing market index reading in April, showing a decline of 42 points from March’s level. This was the steepest single-month decline in the history of the series, implying that single family construction activity will decline by 30 percent.

Led by Nathaniel Karp, BBVA USA’s research team analyzes the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy. For its analyses, the economists create models and forecasts for growth, inflation, monetary policy and industries. The Economic Research team also follows a variety of issues that affect the Sunbelt states where BBVA USA operates. Follow their work on Twitter @BBVAResearch and @BBVANews_USA.

Read the full report here.

See the complete library of BBVA Research publications here.